These are points to which we are bound to give a
thorough consideration. Judging by the attitude hitherto adopted
by Yuan Shi-kai we know he has always resorted to the policy of
expediency in his diplomatic dealings, and although he may now
outwardly show friendliness towards us, he will in fact rely upon
the influence of the different Powers as the easiest check against
us and refuse to accede to our demands. Take for a single
instance, his conduct towards us since the Imperial Government
declared war against Germany and his action will then be clear to
all. Whether we can rely upon the ordinary friendly methods of
diplomacy to gain our object or not it does not require much
wisdom to decide. After the gigantic struggle in Europe is over,
leaving aside America which will not press for advantage, China
will not be able to obtain any loans from the other Powers. With a
depleted treasury, without means to pay the officials and the
army, with local bandits inciting the poverty-stricken populace to
trouble, with the revolutionists waiting for opportunities to
rise, should an insurrection actually occur while no outside
assistance can be rendered to quell it we are certain it will be
impossible for Yuan Shi-kai, single-handed, to restore order and
consolidate the country. The result will be that the nation will
be cut up into many parts beyond all hope of remedy. That this
state of affairs will come is not difficult to foresee.
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