In spite of this reasoning, there are people who build so
much upon their own opinion, that should their favourite horse
happen to be beaten, they will have it to be owing to some fraud.
The following fact is mentioned as a 'paradox.'
It happened at Malden, in Essex, in the year 1738, that three
horses (and no more than three) started for a L10 plate, and they
were all three distanced the first heat, according to the common
rules in horse-racing, without any quibble or equivocation; and
the following was the solution:--The first horse ran on the
inside of the post; the second wanted weight; and the third fell
and broke a fore-leg.[54]
[54] Cheany's Horse-racing Book.
In horse-racing the expectation of an event is considered as the
present value, or worth, of whatsoever sum or thing is depending
on the happening of that event. Therefore if the expectation on
an event be divided by the value of the thing expected, on the
happening of that event, the quotient will be the probability of
happening.
Example I. Suppose two horses, A and B, to start for L50, and
there are even bets on both sides; it is evident that the present
value or worth of each of their expectations will be L25, and the
probabilities 25/50 or 1/2.
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