They asked how they could lose
fifteen games running if bad luck had not prevailed strangely
against them. But it is quite certain that although the odds
against losing so many times together be very great, namely,
32,767 to 1,--yet the POSSIBILITY of it is not destroyed by the
greatness of the odds, there being ONE chance in 32,768 that it
may so happen; therefore it follows that the succession of lost
games was still possible, without the intervention of bad luck.
The accident of losing fifteen games is no more to be imputed to
bad luck than the winning, with one single ticket, the highest
prize in a lottery of 32,768 tickets is to be imputed to good
luck, since the chances in both cases are perfectly equal. But
if it be said that luck has been concerned in the latter case,
the answer will be easy; for let us suppose luck not existing, or
at least let us suppose its influence to be suspended,--yet the
highest prize must fall into some hand or other, not as luck
(for, by the hypothesis, that has been laid aside), but from the
mere necessity of its falling somewhere.
Among the many curious results of these inquiries according to
the doctrine of chances, is the prodigious advantage which the
repetition of odds will amount to.
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